The 2026 Crypto Playbook
10 predictions that actually matter, and what I’m focusing on this year.
This is a 2026 outlook built around one idea: crypto is maturing, and the market is rewarding things that work.
In past cycles, you could buy a narrative early, wait for retail, and sell into hype. That still happens sometimes, but it’s not the main driver anymore. Bigger money cares about liquidity, compliance, and business fundamentals. That changes what performs, and it changes what’s worth holding.
Here are the 10 predictions I’m using as a framework this year, with the practical takeaway for each one.
1. AI agents come back, but only the useful ones
AI agents already had a hype phase. In 2026, the comeback is about execution, not demos. Models are better, and the big unlock is agents that can actually do things end to end, including moving money.
👉 I’m not interested in “AI tokens” by default. I’m watching the rails around agents, stablecoin payments, identity, permissions, security, and projects where the token has a clear job in the system.
2. On-chain perps expand beyond crypto
On-chain perpetuals are one of the strongest product categories in crypto right now. In 2026, I expect the expansion into equities, indices, metals, and commodities to accelerate, because traders want leverage and speed, and on-chain settlement is simply more efficient.
👉 Winners here should be the venues that can keep volume without constant incentives. If the product is genuinely good and execution is clean, users stick. If volume is fake or subsidized, it disappears fast.
3. Prediction markets go mainstream, then get weirder
Prediction markets proved they have demand. They’re easy to understand and they fit mainstream behavior. If volumes expand again in 2026, you get a second wave of builds on top: better discovery, better liquidity tooling, and new product formats.
The sub-trend that matters is leverage. People will use it, and it will drive volume, but it also increases risk quickly.
👉 Treat leveraged prediction products as trading tools, not long-term holds.
4. Neobanks become the main onboarding route
Most people don’t want to “use crypto.” They want better banking. Crypto neobanks and stablecoin based apps are getting closer to that reality: easier on and off ramps, cards that work, faster transfers, and less friction.
👉 This is one of the cleanest “real adoption” stories in 2026. If these products scale, they bring users in for utility, not speculation, and that supports the rest of the ecosystem.
5. ICOs are back, but most people will still get wrecked
Public token sales are returning. Some of this is regulatory climate, some of it is founders wanting wider distribution. But the old truth still applies: most ICOs are not great long-term holds, and many will dump after launch.
👉 Treat ICOs like venture style bets. Small sizing, clear thesis, and a plan for both outcomes, either it pumps fast or it doesn’t. Without a plan, sales turn into bags.
6. Bitcoin ends 2026 higher than it started, but the path is messy
Bitcoin is around the low $90Ks right now. I don’t claim to know the exact path, but I do expect at least one strong upside push during the year. Macro will decide the speed and the ceiling: liquidity, rates, growth, and risk appetite.
👉 Bitcoin remains the core anchor. The opportunity is not in predicting every swing. It’s in being positioned for the move without getting chopped up by noise.
7. RWAs have another strong year
On-chain real world assets have already become a meaningful category. As of early 2026, total on-chain RWA value is around $20B depending on the definition used, and the main drivers are tokenized treasuries, stablecoin growth, and commodities.
👉 RWAs are not a “retail hype” sector, but they are one of the most institutional friendly parts of crypto. That matters for durability.
8. Stablecoin supply grows another 50%
Stablecoins are one of the clearest metrics of real usage. The market is now around $300B, and if we get another 50% expansion in 2026, that’s a major liquidity tailwind.
👉 Stablecoin growth supports trading, lending, payments, and RWAs. It doesn’t guarantee every altcoin pumps, but it does make the ecosystem healthier and more liquid.
9. Revenue wins over “pure speculation”
This is where I think most portfolios need to evolve. Tokens tied to real fee generation and clear value capture are easier to justify and easier to hold. Institutions look at revenue, margins, growth, and mechanisms like buybacks because that’s how they understand risk.
👉 Speculation still has a place, but for core holdings, I want exposure to protocols that earn real money and have transparent token economics.
10. Institutions matter more than retail
Retail will always show up in euphoric moments, but the marginal buyer is increasingly institutional. That pushes the market toward liquidity, compliance, and fundamentals.
👉 Trading like it’s 2021 will be frustrating. 2026 rewards a more structured approach: strong majors, real businesses, and selective narrative trades.
How I’m thinking about positioning in 2026
I’m keeping it simple. A core allocation to the highest liquidity assets, a second bucket of quality tokens tied to revenue and real usage, and a smaller tactical bucket for narratives and new launches, sized and managed tightly.
If we get a strong year, hype trades will still happen. But the cleaner returns should come from the parts of crypto that are becoming real infrastructure. That’s the main bet for 2026.